Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.019020 0.021564 0.024329 0.027555 0.031220 0.035255 0.040037
2025-06-01 0.015077 0.018587 0.022733 0.027997 0.034512 0.042321 0.052410
2025-06-08 0.012647 0.016499 0.021317 0.027793 0.036290 0.047085 0.061886
2025-06-15 0.011325 0.015478 0.020919 0.028585 0.039141 0.053213 0.073477
2025-06-22 0.009720 0.013824 0.019419 0.027629 0.039411 0.055782 0.080378
2025-06-29 0.008624 0.012709 0.018481 0.027263 0.040345 0.059209 0.088656
2025-07-06 0.007563 0.011510 0.017271 0.026327 0.040283 0.061099 0.094745
2025-07-13 0.007153 0.011222 0.017344 0.027271 0.043064 0.067389 0.108023
2025-07-20 0.006733 0.010865 0.017261 0.027939 0.045441 0.073216 0.121072
2025-07-27 0.006403 0.010612 0.017304 0.028785 0.048146 0.079754 0.135839
2025-08-03 0.005902 0.010028 0.016755 0.028596 0.049098 0.083472 0.146170
2025-08-10 0.005491 0.009553 0.016338 0.028576 0.050309 0.087687 0.157687
2025-08-17 0.005034 0.008968 0.015697 0.028133 0.050784 0.090745 0.167589
2025-08-24 0.004762 0.008684 0.015551 0.028554 0.052839 0.096775 0.183509
2025-08-31 0.004422 0.008244 0.015088 0.028347 0.053706 0.100700 0.195816
2025-09-07 0.004259 0.008114 0.015172 0.029156 0.056535 0.108486 0.216261
2025-09-14 0.003873 0.007529 0.014359 0.028180 0.055835 0.109478 0.223347
2025-09-21 0.003600 0.007138 0.013881 0.027806 0.056272 0.112689 0.235176
2025-09-28 0.003284 0.006636 0.013144 0.026852 0.055448 0.113302 0.241646
2025-10-05 0.003210 0.006611 0.013345 0.027814 0.058636 0.122325 0.266769
2025-10-12 0.003109 0.006522 0.013409 0.028496 0.061288 0.130446 0.290696
2025-10-19 0.003032 0.006476 0.013555 0.029360 0.064400 0.139797 0.318226
2025-10-26 0.002859 0.006212 0.013226 0.029166 0.065177 0.144152 0.334823